Matthew Stafford: HOVG, or HOF?

[ChrisBabcock]

As a 49ers fan I can't find it within myself to root for the Rams or Seahawks and I truly wonder what the NFC West would've looked like had San Francisco not been consumed by injury after injury this season.
Full seasons from Bosa and Warner (among others) might've given the division a very different look... it probably would've been like a gigantic pile-up on 101.

As also a 49ers fan I agree completely! Interestingly, of each of the Rams and Seahawks 2 losses, 1 was at the hands of the 49ers.

[Reaser]

I truly wonder what the NFC West would've looked like had San Francisco not been consumed by injury after injury this season.

This season? They've been consumed by injuries for just shy of a decade. At some point, the standard eliminates the allotment of "what ifs" playable.

[JuggernautJ]

True enough.
But unless you think there's something unique to the 49ers... their field, the way they practice, their staff, etc., etc., etc. that is somehow responsible for the never ending stream of injuries then one has to wonder where'd they'd be without those.
I mean, they've been to (and lost) two Super Bowls in the last six seasons.
Without all the injuries... who knows?

In particular, that injury to Greenlaw in Super Bowl LVIII was... fill in the blank: stupefying... maddening... game-determining... enough to make one wonder if we're cursed...

[sluggermatt15]

Its interesting that Stafford and the Rams have a chance to go into first place this weekend with a win against Seattle. Right now counting postseason, Stafford has led his two teams to a record of 120-120-1. With a possible divisional title and a possible chance at an NFC Championship appearance--not to mention over 60,000 yards and over 400 TD passes--Stafford has if nothing else, a longevity HOF case with his championship, but we will see. Mike Florio came up with a ridiculous first-ballot argument but if Stafford can continue to uptick with a winning career record, he will stay fresh in voters minds for the future.

Hmm I wonder what Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers would think of that.

I just don't see how Stafford could be a HOFer ahead of the other QBs of his era. He was on some bad teams in Detroit which he may have been overshadowed. But winning one Super Bowl should not guarantee you the HOF.

He is just .500 as a starter, never made an all-pro team. Longevity? So what, should not could as much as people think. Just two Pro Bowls, too. Matt Ryan never won a Super Bowl, but at least he was a first-team all-pro AND he won the MVP... Also don't see how people think Stafford is in when he played in roughly the same era as...

Brady
Brees
Rodgers
Roethlisberger
Rivers
Russell Wilson
Eli Manning

Would all of these guys get in??

[SeahawkFever]

Its interesting that Stafford and the Rams have a chance to go into first place this weekend with a win against Seattle. Right now counting postseason, Stafford has led his two teams to a record of 120-120-1. With a possible divisional title and a possible chance at an NFC Championship appearance--not to mention over 60,000 yards and over 400 TD passes--Stafford has if nothing else, a longevity HOF case with his championship, but we will see. Mike Florio came up with a ridiculous first-ballot argument but if Stafford can continue to uptick with a winning career record, he will stay fresh in voters minds for the future.

Hmm I wonder what Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers would think of that.

I just don't see how Stafford could be a HOFer ahead of the other QBs of his era. He was on some bad teams in Detroit which he may have been overshadowed. But winning one Super Bowl should not guarantee you the HOF.

He is just .500 as a starter, never made an all-pro team. Longevity? So what, should not could as much as people think. Just two Pro Bowls, too. Matt Ryan never won a Super Bowl, but at least he was a first-team all-pro AND he won the MVP... Also don't see how people think Stafford is in when he played in roughly the same era as...

Brady
Brees
Rodgers
Roethlisberger
Rivers
Russell Wilson
Eli Manning

Would all of these guys get in??

Darn good career and a certain amount of overshadowed to be sure, but barring another deeper playoff appearance and MVP, I wouldn’t expect Stafford to have a legit Hall of Fame case.

Lack of accolades in his generation doesn’t help either.

His career totals are fairly high on all time lists, but in my book it’s a bit more of something to hang your hat on if you are top five in those totals.

Years later we could probably look at Stafford as being someone who could’ve had a more consensus Hall of Fame resume had he not spent several of his prime years in Detroit. Perhaps if he was on a team that built around him better.

[Brian wolf]

Good points by all, and I still believe Stafford is more in the HOVG range due to his throwing ability and thats what I was referring to in context to future HOF voting ... will he, Rivers or Ryan get a throwers' consideration like Jurgensen, Moon, Fouts and Namath?

Also, what if he could throw the Rams to another championship?
Two championships would definitely help his cause regardless of lack of accolades. Brees has one championship as well but most people feel he will be first ballot due to his throwing precision and accolades. No one gives him demerits due to the BountyGate scandal. The Rams have their chance again this year with Davante Adams helping his own HOF case.

[sluggermatt15]

^Good points Brian.

I think Brees was also just a better passer. He led the NFL in passing yards 7x, passing touchdowns 4x. Stafford has never led in either. He's only led in pass attempts 2x and pass completions once. Plus, Brees was a winner, he had 172 career wins against 114 losses. Stafford is merely a .500 starter. So he surely did not benefit from not being on a great team in Detroit.

[readjack]

I still think there is a glut of QBs from the Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees era who are all lumped together and who voters shouldn't be considering until they go deeper into other position groups. E. Manning, Newton, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Stafford, Wilson. I tend to think Ben Roethlisberger is the clear-cut top of this group, but I think he belongs more in this group than in the Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees group.

Trying to view this like the collective voting body, clearly voters like Eli. They named him a first-ballot finalist. I think it's fair to say that they won't go for Newton. We will know much more very soon about how they feel about Rivers.

It does seem like they are leaning away from Ryan and Wilson and leaning toward Stafford, even though Stafford has zero All Pro and just two Pro Bowls. People like to say that Pro Bowl is a bad stat because of replacements and popularity, but that makes Stafford sitting at two Pro Bowls even worse. He's been in L.A. four full years, one of the biggest markets, and iconic franchise and a champ in year one, and he has only reached one Pro Bowl, the same as when he was on the Lions.

Yet clearly this group is being defined by championships, not Pro Bowls, because Eli now looks like a lock (2 rings, 4 Pro Bowls, 0 All Pro votes) while Russell Wilson feels on the bubble (1 ring, 10 Pro Bowls, 1 AP2).

Stafford will surely make the Pro Bowl this year. He might be All Pro. He might win the MVP. If he wins the MVP, that's going to feel like Curtis Martin's 2004, a season that feels like it lifts the rest of his seasons. If he wins the Super Bowl, I think he's in. What will continue to muddy the waters is if Stafford has a great year, but doesn't win MVP and doesn't win the Super Bowl, and maybe doesn't even get AP1 or AP2. Drake Maye looks like he'll take one of the All Pro slots. What if Herbert or Jones or even a late-run Lamar or Mahomes gets the other? What if Maye makes a TD run and nips Stafford for the TD title? Then Stafford adds a Pro Bowl, a great all-around season and maybe even a trip to the NFC title game or Super Bowl, but if he can't pull out the ring, he really didn't have a season that distinguishes it from his other years.

[readjack]

Group 1: Brady, Brees, Mahomes, Manning, Rodgers
Group 2: E. Manning, Newton, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Stafford, Wilson

Here is a look at the worst person in Group 1 vs. the best in Group 2 in each of these categories. In every category, the group 1 worst is so easily ahead overall of the group 2 best, and often better even in the category itself. Now add to group 1 Favre and Warner, who are both in and both overlapped with a bunch of these guys, and then add Lamar on the other end, and some mix of Allen, Burrow, Hurts.

Now look at all of the centers, guards, DTs, non-rush OLBs, and other overlooked positions. Put it all together and there is no reason for voters to move so quickly down the line of QBs.

MVP
* Group 1 worst: Brees (0, 4x 2nd place)
* Group 2 best: Newton/Ryan (1x each, 0 other seasons with MVP votes)

Seasons with MVP votes
* Group 1 worst: Brees (4x, all 2nd place)
* Group 2 best: Rivers (2x, 3rd place high)

OPOY
* Group 1 worst: Rodgers (0x, 7x votes, 4x 2nd place)
* Group 2 best: Newton/Ryan (1x each, 0 other seasons with OPOY votes)

Seasons with OPOY votes
* Group 1 worst: Mahomes (5x, 1x OPOY)
* Group 2 best: Rivers (3x, 0 wins)

Pro Bowls
* Group 1 worst: Mahomes (6x)
* Group 2 best: Wilson (10x)

AP1
* Group 1 worst: Brees (1x, 4x AP2)
* Group 2 best: Newton/Ryan (1x, 0 other seasons with AP1 or AP2)

AP1 + AP2
* Group 1 worst: Mahomes (3x, 2x AP1)
* Group 2 best: Newton/Ryan (1x, 0 other seasons with AP1 or AP2)

Yards champ
* Group 1 worst: Mahomes (1x, 5250 yards)
* Group 2 best: Roethlisberger (2x, 5129 yards high)

Yards career (excluding Mahomes)
* Group 1 worst: Rodgers (5th, 65k)
* Group 2 best: Roethlisberger (6th, 64k)

TD champ
* Group 1 worst: Mahomes/Rodgers (2x each, Rodgers with the low at 40)
* Group 2 best: Stafford/Rivers/Wilson (1x each, Rivers/Wilson each with 34)

TD career (excluding Mahomes)
* Group 1 worst: Rodgers (4th, 521)
* Group 2 best: Rivers (6th, 421)

Rating champ:
* Group 1 worst: Mahomes (0)
* Group 2 best: Rivers/Ryan/Wilson (1x each, Ryan 117.1 high)

Rating career:
* Group 1 worst: Peyton (17th, 96.5)
* Group 2 best: Wilson (5th, 99.3)

SB starts:
* Group 1 worst: Brees/Rodgers (1x each)
* Group 2 best: Roethlisberger (3x)

Rings:
* Group 1 worst: Brees/Rodgers (1x each)
* Group 2 best: Eli/Roethlisberger (2x)

SB MVP:
* Group 1 worst: Brees/Rodgers (1x each)
* Group 2 best: Eli (2x)

[Brian wolf]

You seem to value wins over mere passing stats like I do sluggermatt. Brees definitely was a more superior passer to Stafford and his stats are more similar-like to Marino, who many consider the best pure passer of any QB, who also had alot more wins than losses.

Jack is right though ... the first tier of QBs is definitely better than the second, though some people might even put Big Ben in that first tier ... I dont, but we cant discount his mobility, which could have helped the team have more success if the Steelers defense had done more in postseason.

Wilson, Jackson and now Josh Allen, who will threaten 100 rushing TDs in the next two seasons will get discussed more down the line due to their great running/scrambling ability.