Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

Hi everyone,

Just got done calculating the results of the Score% differential metric for the 2025 season.

One difference between this set of data and previous versions of the metric: I used an XLookup function in excel to grab the values of particular columns, and weigh the opponent adjustment of the metric by the percentage of drives a team encountered in its season for each team they faced.

Ex: In the Thursday Night Football game against the Rams, the Seahawks offense had two passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, attempted no field goals, punted five times, had no failed fourth down attempts, and turned the ball over three times. That adds up to 12 drives on offense against the Rams (out of 177 for the season).

Before by contrast I would mark the Rams as 1/17th of the opponent adjustment by default before calculating it.

Without further adieu, Score% Differential for the 2025 season:

2025 Los Angeles Rams 0.206678494
2025 Seattle Seahawks 0.196359444
2025 Houston Texans 0.179321917
2025 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.132265145
2025 New England Patriots 0.114877485
2025 San Francisco 49ers 0.100241325
2025 Indianapolis Colts 0.089873185
2025 Buffalo Bills 0.080087873
2025 Kansas City Chiefs 0.052495323
2025 Detroit Lions 0.052374353
2025 Denver Broncos 0.044404875
2025 Philadelphia Eagles 0.039499094
2025 Minnesota Vikings 0.037937789
2025 Los Angeles Chargers 0.037461285
2025 Green Bay Packers 0.034080682
2025 Chicago Bears 0.023893833
2025 Baltimore Ravens 0.019446088
2025 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.015114166
2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.006514824
2025 Atlanta Falcons -0.03974926
2025 Cincinnati Bengals -0.048323862
2025 New York Giants -0.074736104
2025 Carolina Panthers -0.084401914
2025 Dallas Cowboys -0.088459164
2025 Miami Dolphins -0.088815205
2025 Arizona Cardinals -0.099196203
2025 Washington Commanders -0.115469504
2025 New Orleans Saints -0.12690423
2025 Cleveland Browns -0.139945748
2025 Tennessee Titans -0.175145157
2025 Las Vegas Raiders -0.183064879
2025 New York Jets -0.237454553

This is the fifth time the Rams have shown up on top by this metric (1973, 1977, 1999, 2001, and now 2025)

This is the third time in the history of the Jets franchise that they show up dead last by Score% Differential (1962, 1963 and now 2025)

Here are the totals for the offenses for 2025:

2025 Indianapolis Colts 0.137957452
2025 Los Angeles Rams 0.12517554
2025 New England Patriots 0.107487395
2025 San Francisco 49ers 0.106544346
2025 Buffalo Bills 0.094605767
2025 Dallas Cowboys 0.071107094
2025 Detroit Lions 0.069412736
2025 Baltimore Ravens 0.057704883
2025 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.055871577
2025 Seattle Seahawks 0.05540696
2025 Green Bay Packers 0.049376501
2025 Chicago Bears 0.037417654
2025 Kansas City Chiefs 0.0332673
2025 Washington Commanders 0.030725679
2025 Houston Texans 0.024947785
2025 Cincinnati Bengals 0.023117469
2025 Los Angeles Chargers 0.020059916
2025 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.014534148
2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.006334183
2025 Arizona Cardinals -0.022769385
2025 New York Giants -0.022784286
2025 Denver Broncos -0.027416808
2025 Atlanta Falcons -0.038499767
2025 Miami Dolphins -0.045479743
2025 Philadelphia Eagles -0.047223377
2025 Carolina Panthers -0.053179088
2025 Minnesota Vikings -0.055364534
2025 Tennessee Titans -0.106796192
2025 New Orleans Saints -0.109601492
2025 New York Jets -0.126654025
2025 Las Vegas Raiders -0.138653033
2025 Cleveland Browns -0.198701987

This is the eleventh time the Colts franchise has shown up on top on offense by the metric (1958, 1959, 1967, 1968, 1976, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and now 2025)

This is the fourth time that the Browns show up as the league's worst offense by the stat (2000, 2017, 2024, and now 2025). That total is the same whether you include the older Browns or not.

Now for the defenses for 2025:

2025 Houston Texans -0.154374132
2025 Seattle Seahawks -0.140952484
2025 Minnesota Vikings -0.093302324
2025 Philadelphia Eagles -0.086722471
2025 Los Angeles Rams -0.081502954
2025 Jacksonville Jaguars -0.076393568
2025 Denver Broncos -0.071821683
2025 Cleveland Browns -0.058756239
2025 Kansas City Chiefs -0.019228023
2025 Los Angeles Chargers -0.017401369
2025 New England Patriots -0.007390091
2025 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.000580018
2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.000180642
2025 Atlanta Falcons 0.001249492
2025 San Francisco 49ers 0.006303021
2025 Chicago Bears 0.013523821
2025 Buffalo Bills 0.014517894
2025 Green Bay Packers 0.01529582
2025 Detroit Lions 0.017038383
2025 New Orleans Saints 0.017302738
2025 Carolina Panthers 0.031222826
2025 Baltimore Ravens 0.038258795
2025 Miami Dolphins 0.043335462
2025 Las Vegas Raiders 0.044411846
2025 Indianapolis Colts 0.048084267
2025 New York Giants 0.051951818
2025 Tennessee Titans 0.068348965
2025 Cincinnati Bengals 0.071441331
2025 Arizona Cardinals 0.076426818
2025 New York Jets 0.110800528
2025 Washington Commanders 0.146195183
2025 Dallas Cowboys 0.159566258

This is the first time in the history of the Texans franchise that they showed up with the league's best defense.

This is the second time the Cowboys show up as having the worst defense by this metric. (1960 being the other)

Here are the schedules of the teams' ranked by opposing score percentage differential:

2025 Arizona Cardinals 0.047721837
2025 Tennessee Titans 0.046189684
2025 Houston Texans 0.027162448
2025 Indianapolis Colts 0.026594052
2025 Las Vegas Raiders 0.020801203
2025 Los Angeles Rams 0.019327482
2025 Minnesota Vikings 0.01501096
2025 Seattle Seahawks 0.009778224
2025 San Francisco 49ers 0.009716236
2025 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.009458057
2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.009163343
2025 Baltimore Ravens 0.008567691
2025 Washington Commanders 0.007762471
2025 Carolina Panthers 0.004995292
2025 Philadelphia Eagles 0.003336223
2025 New York Jets 0.003241885
2025 New York Giants 0.002766612
2025 Detroit Lions 0.002571981
2025 Cincinnati Bengals 0.001375166
2025 Jacksonville Jaguars -0.003207521
2025 Kansas City Chiefs -0.006952368
2025 Los Angeles Chargers -0.009565276
2025 Atlanta Falcons -0.013862832
2025 New Orleans Saints -0.015032309
2025 Green Bay Packers -0.017643905
2025 Buffalo Bills -0.018600939
2025 Cleveland Browns -0.022112962
2025 Chicago Bears -0.024738323
2025 Miami Dolphins -0.024834163
2025 Denver Broncos -0.029851709
2025 Dallas Cowboys -0.039069238
2025 New England Patriots -0.057481005

And by opposing win percentages:

2025 Tennessee Titans 0.574529412
2025 Arizona Cardinals 0.571117647
2025 New York Jets 0.552117647
2025 Indianapolis Colts 0.539823529
2025 Las Vegas Raiders 0.538117647
2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.529529412
2025 Los Angeles Rams 0.526058824
2025 New York Giants 0.524176471
2025 Carolina Panthers 0.522647059
2025 Houston Texans 0.522588235
2025 Cincinnati Bengals 0.520764706
2025 Kansas City Chiefs 0.513823529
2025 Minnesota Vikings 0.513823529
2025 Washington Commanders 0.506882353
2025 Baltimore Ravens 0.506882353
2025 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.503529412
2025 San Francisco 49ers 0.498352941
2025 Seattle Seahawks 0.498294118
2025 Atlanta Falcons 0.494941176
2025 New Orleans Saints 0.494941176
2025 Detroit Lions 0.489588235
2025 Miami Dolphins 0.488
2025 Cleveland Browns 0.486117647
2025 Green Bay Packers 0.482588235
2025 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.477529412
2025 Philadelphia Eagles 0.475705882
2025 Buffalo Bills 0.470705882
2025 Los Angeles Chargers 0.468823529
2025 Chicago Bears 0.458352941
2025 Dallas Cowboys 0.437588235
2025 Denver Broncos 0.422058824
2025 New England Patriots 0.391

The Titans have the hardest opposing win percentage, while the Cardinals schedule is slightly harder by opposing score percentage differential, whereas the Patriots show up as clearly playing the easiest schedule this season by both metrics.

And lastly, here are the luck ratings for 2025 (the differential of percentile of record and percentile of score% differential, positive means record is better than stats relative to the league, negative is worse):

2025 Denver Broncos 25.80645161
2025 Pittsburgh Steelers 19.35483871
2025 Chicago Bears 16.12903226
2025 Los Angeles Chargers 12.90322581
2025 New England Patriots 9.677419355
2025 Carolina Panthers 9.677419355
2025 Miami Dolphins 9.677419355
2025 New Orleans Saints 9.677419355
2025 Dallas Cowboys 9.677419355
2025 Philadelphia Eagles 9.677419355
2025 Green Bay Packers 6.451612903
2025 Cleveland Browns 6.451612903
2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.225806452
2025 Washington Commanders 3.225806452
2025 Seattle Seahawks 3.225806452
2025 Atlanta Falcons 3.225806452
2025 Tennessee Titans 0
2025 New York Jets 0
2025 Las Vegas Raiders 0
2025 Baltimore Ravens 0
2025 Jacksonville Jaguars 0
2025 Buffalo Bills 0
2025 San Francisco 49ers -3.225806452
2025 Minnesota Vikings -6.451612903
2025 Arizona Cardinals -9.677419355
2025 Cincinnati Bengals -9.677419355
2025 Houston Texans -9.677419355
2025 Los Angeles Rams -12.90322581
2025 Detroit Lions -12.90322581
2025 New York Giants -19.35483871
2025 Indianapolis Colts -29.03225806
2025 Kansas City Chiefs -45.16129032

Those are the stats for the 2025 season. I hope you find these interesting at least.

A preliminary investigation reveals that the 2025 New England Patriots' strength of schedule of 0.3910 is quite low by historical standards and reflects what could be the easiest NFL schedule since league realignment in 2002.

Fitzclarence wrote: ↑Sat Jan 17, 2026 2:25 pm A preliminary investigation reveals that the 2025 New England Patriots' strength of schedule of 0.3910 is quite low by historical standards and reflects what could be the easiest NFL schedule since league realignment in 2002.

Actually the 2021 Seahawks had an opposing win percentage of .366; easiest since 1999 Rams.